First Comprehensive Predictions of Impact of Climate Change on Global Fisheries
Scientists have for the first time calculated the likely impact of climate change on the distribution of more than 1000 species of fish around the globe. Published last week in the journal ‘Fish and Fisheries’, the research was carried out by scientists at the University of British Columbia, Princeton University and the University of East Anglia.
The new study is predicting a dramatic shift in fish populations in the world’s oceans. Scientists say fish and other sea life will be seeking out cooler waters as the ocean temperatures rise.
It has long been known that ocean conditions such as temperature and current patterns are changing due to climate change, and that these changes directly affect the numbers and locations of different species of fish. The research team developed a new computer model that predicts for the first time exactly what might happen under different climate scenarios to the distribution of commercially important species – including cod, herring, sharks, groupers and prawns.
Current conservation and fisheries management measures do not account for climate-driven species distribution shifts and it is hoped this research will change this. The demonstrate for the first time that there will be a large-scale re-distribution of species, with most moving towards the Poles. On average, fish are likely to shift their distribution by more than 40km per decade and there will be an increasing abundance of more southern species in the north. Developing countries in the tropics will suffer the biggest loss in catch – while northern countries such as Canada, Iceland and Norway will gain increased catch.
The research shows that the impact of climate change on marine biodiversity and fisheries is going to be huge. The researchers said that governments and policy-makers must act now to adapt fisheries management and conservation policies to minimize harm to marine life and to our society.
‘The capacity and likelihood of climate change adaptation in the world’s fisheries’ by William Cheung (UEA), Vicky Lam (UBC), Jorge Sarmiento (Princeton), Kelly Kearney (Princeton), Reg Watson (UBC) and Daniel Pauly (UBC) was published on February 12, 2008 in the journal ‘Fish and Fisheries’.
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