Why China Really Wants A Big Navy
Missile Destroyer Haikou 171 of the PLA Navy’s South China Sea Fleet. She departed with two other Chinese warships on a mission to the Gulf of Aden near Somali on anti-pirate patrol in December.
The growth of the Chinese navy, seen from the Chinese point of view, is the result of China’s three decades of economic growth and modernization. This economic growth depends on massive imports of raw materials, particularly oil and ores, especially iron ore. While China’s economy could continue to grow without its massive exports, that economy would collapse without the imports. Thus China has gone from being classic “Continental Power” (that was not dependent on seaborne commerce), to a maritime power, that must maintain access to oceanic supply routes. Thus China needs a navy to help preserve that access.
Russia, the other great Eurasian continental power, is still one. Russia produces its own oil, and can get anything else it needs via land routes in Eurasia. Thus Russia is not overly concerned that its navy is shrinking to the size of a coast guard. China, however, has to be particularly concerned with the sea routes to distant Persian Gulf and Africa. Australia is closer, but still a long sea distance away. It’s not that China wants to fight a naval war, but it does want a strong enough navy to prevent any smaller, rogue, nation from interfering with Chinese shipping. For example, China’s contribution to the anti-piracy patrol in the Gulf of Aden is a big deal in China. For once, the Chinese Navy is able to reach a long distance, and protect Chinese interests.
In particular, China has to worry about the Straits of Malacca (the narrow seaway providing the quickest passage between the Pacific and Indian oceans). Some 20 percent of all world trade moves through these straits. Sea traffic here is vulnerable to naval mines and sinking large ships in shallower channels. This would disrupt some traffic. Near total shutdown of the straits would cause economic disruption worldwide, and especially in China. Shipping costs would go up and there would be lots of shipping delays. Ultimate economic costs would run into the hundreds of billion dollars. China needs to stay on good terms with Singapore (the island city, populated largely by ethnic Chinese, right on the straits), and have a naval force capable to protecting the straits from any threat.
Then there is the Indian Ocean. India takes the name seriously, and considers itself the guardian of the sea routes through this vast area. This includes most of the oil coming out of the Persian Gulf (where most of the world’s known oil reserves are). India needs access to that oil, as well as to African resources. India is not receptive to seeing the Chinese Navy operating nearby, but the Chinese feel they have to show up, to prepare for any contingency.
From China’s perspective, the U.S. Navy is not the big threat, unless the Americans ally themselves with India, or anyone else trying to cut China’s maritime supply lines.
Could Iran Shut Down the Strait of Hormuz?
The U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) is saying that Iran’s navy has reached the point where it can effectively seal off the Strait of Hormuz in the event of war. According to a September ONI report, Iran would likely do this if its nuclear sites were attacked by the U.S. or Israel. The implications of this naval blockade would endanger the fragile world economy: since nearly 40 percent of the world’s oil supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz, even a limited closure would cause the price of oil to skyrocket, Press TV reports.
World economies would suffer a “serious economic impact from a sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to greatly reduced supplies of crude oil, petroleum supplies and (liquefied natural gas),” ONI said.
The report also pointed to Iran’s naval modernization to help carry out such a closure. Indeed, the report said that Iran not only is expanding its current arms inventories but is adding “increasingly sophisticated systems” which it has acquired from China and Russia.
The Chinese have provided Iran with an arsenal of C801 and C802 cruise missiles which it could use for coastal defense. The missiles are capable of reaching any point within the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, according to the Navy.
Iran also has worked with China to develop shorter-range missiles, including the C701, for “deployment in narrow geographic environments,” the report added.
The ONI report tended to confirm what the Navy until now has refused to talk about, namely Iran’s possible possession of a “supercavitation high-speed missile torpedo.” For some time, there has been speculation that Iran may have acquired from the Russians or Chinese this torpedo capable of speeds of 250 knots.
The U.S. Navy has no defense against it, making U.S. warships such as aircraft carriers and other battle group ships vulnerable. A similar threat also comes from Iranian submarines.
The Strait of Hormuz, however, is not the only potential chokepoint where oil supplies could be cut in the event of a crisis. Throughout the world, there are some six such chokepoints of which some are in areas currently embroiled in serious turmoil and political tension.
In October Iranian media outlets reported that as part of its plan to enhance its maritime defence, Iran has developed an advanced, indigenously constructed Sina-class missile boat. Iran’s defence minister claimed that the ship is equipped with radar, weapons, electronic and telecommunication systems, as well as advanced navigation technology.
The Iranian navy is transforming from a littoral force into a blue water force, according to Iranian Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari. But there have been questions about the quality of that equipment and ships.
Sea Level Could Rise from 0.75 to 1.9 Meters This Century
Inundated areas (blue) in lower Manhattan, New York in a statistically typical one-hundred year storm event based on the present sea level. A sea-level rise of 1 metre would result in storm surges of this height approximately every four years. (Credit: Source: Rosenzweig and Solecki, 2001; data based on USGS, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Marquise McGraw, NASA GISS)
A new scientific study warns that sea level could rise much faster than previously expected. By the year 2100, global sea level could rise between 75 and 190 centimetres, according to a paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
The authors, Martin Vermeer of Helsinki University of Technology in Finland and Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, based their analysis on measurements of sea level and temperature taken over the past 130 years. In those data they identified a strong link between the rate of sea level rise and global temperature.
“Since 1990 sea level has been rising at 3.4 millimetres per year, twice as fast as on average over the 20th Century,” says Stefan Rahmstorf. Even if that rate just remained steady, this would already lead to 34 centimetres rise in the 21st century. “But the data show us clearly: the warmer it gets, the faster sea level rises. If we want to prevent a galloping sea level rise, we should stop global warming as soon as possible,” adds Rahmstorf.
The link between the rate of sea level rise and global temperature was originally proposed by Rahmstorf in an article in the journal Science in 2007. The new study refines this idea. It adds a second term to the equation in order to capture the short-term response of sea level, leading to greater physical realism as well as a much greater precision. Vermeer and Rahmstorf also added the latest data sets, including satellite measurements up to 2008 and a correction for water storage in man-made reservoirs, which overall lowers global sea level by 3 centimetres.
Their results show that even for a relatively low greenhouse gas emissions scenario with just 2 degrees Celsius warming over the 21st century, sea level is likely to rise by more than one meter. Their highest scenario, with over 4 degrees Celsius warming over the 21st century, would lead to over 1.4 meters of sea level rise by 2100. When the full set of emissions scenarios and estimated uncertainties are considered, waters may rise by anything between 75 centimetres and 1.9 metres by the year 2100 — consistent with another recent estimate of an upper limit of 2 metres, based on consideration of ice sheet dynamics.
“More noteworthy even than the very high figures for sea level rise is the almost clockwork precision by which, on climatic time scales, temperature drives sea level rise,” says Martin Vermeer. The results of the study also demonstrate the quality of the existing sea level and temperature time series used, “painstakingly constructed from measurements at stations around the globe for well over a century,” Vermeer notes.
The projected rise is about three times as much as estimated in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007, which did not fully include the effects of ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica. To avoid such a large sea level rise, which would be an existential threat to many large coastal cities as well as a number of small island nations, drastic and rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions will be required.
The study finds that delays in emissions reductions will come at a high cost, since early emissions cuts are much more effective in limiting sea level rise than later cuts. The emissions reductions needed to keep sea level rise below 1 meter will likely be considerably more ambitious than those needed to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, a policy goal now supported by many nations.
Fisheries Are Iceland’s Most Important Export
Herring fishery in Breiðafjörður in 2008 (Credit: F/V Faxi)
Jón Bjarnason, Iceland’s Minister of Fisheries and Agriculture recently gave a speech at the International Professional Inshore and Small Scale Fishers Meeting in Biarritz, France.
He told the attendees that Icelandic sustainable fish catches have been approximately 2 million tonnes annually, accounting for 1.8 to 2.5% of the world total catches.
The annual catches within the Icelandic Exclusive Economic Zone have been approximately 1,450,000 tons and around 500,000 tons beyond the Icelandic Exclusive Economic Zone. The total annual market value of exported Icelandic marine products is approximately $2 billion US dollars.
In 2005 Iceland ranked 14th of the world’s total catches with 1.7 million tonnes or 1.8%. Fishing has been an important activity in Iceland ever since the country was settled and has provided the basis for the country’s progress and economic growth during the past century.
Considering recent events in Iceland, including the melt down of the banking sector, sustainable fisheries have proven to be the fundamental pillar of Iceland’s economy and social structure and will continue to do so for the years to come.
Icelandic fisheries will provide over 40% of all exports value in 2009 and it is the single most important exporting industry in Iceland.
Hudson Canyon Shows Diverse Marine Ecosystem
The autonomous underwater vehicle Eagle Ray. (Credit: Peter Rona)
A series of newly discovered pits in the bottom of the Hudson Canyon, 100 miles southeast of New York Harbor, may be a key ingredient for the abundant and diverse marine ecosystem in and around the canyon, according to research by scientists from Rutgers University and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Peter Rona, professor of marine science at Rutgers’ Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, and Vincent Guida, a research fisheries biologist at the NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center, led the cruise which found the pits up to hundreds of feet in diameter and tens of feet deep this summer. Their findings will be presented at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union, Dec. 14-18, in San Francisco.
“Finding these pits is new for this area,” Rona said. “They’ve been found in certain other places, such as the Gulf of Mexico. There, they’ve been related to the dissolution of gas hydrates in the sediments below the sea floor.”
When enough gas hydrates — methane gas frozen in ice crystals in muddy sediments beneath the seafloor- have dissolved, the sediments in which they’ve been trapped may collapse, forming pits. Rona suspects that may have happened in the Hudson Canyon. During their cruise on the NOAA Fisheries Survey Vessel Henry B. Bigelow in August, the researchers recovered water samples from the canyon. These samples, still being analyzed by Mary Scranton, professor of marine science at Stony Brook University, indicated abnormally high levels of methane in water taken from above at least one of those pits.
All this, Guida said, may benefit much of what lives and swims in the water column in the canyon, from bacteria to tilefish.
Methane is a source of energy that certain bacteria use to manufacture carbohydrates (sugars and starches) in order to nourish themselves. The bacteria, in turn, are consumed by other organisms like clams and worms.
They, in turn, may support the larger animals up the food chain, including golden tilefish, which are the focus of a major fishery, and therefore of Guida’s professional attention. Guida said he found what appear to be the burrows of tilefish in the canyon. Generation of methane may have direct environmental effects, too. It is not only important as a chemical energy source to enable bacteria to nourish themselves at the base of a food chain, but is also a potent greenhouse gas that can contribute to global warming. Net benefits or costs of methane release to the ecosystem depend on rates of production and consumption, which have yet to be measured.
Rona and Guida said their work was made possible by the use of a robotic free-swimming underwater vehicle, the Eagle Ray, provided by the National Institute for Undersea Science and Technology. The institute is a joint venture of NOAA, the University of Mississippi and the University of Southern Mississippi.
The Eagle Ray cruises about 50 meters (165 feet) above the ocean bottom, and automatically conforms its track to the contours of the bottom. Using sonar, the Eagle Ray produces maps of seafloor objects as small as 15 feet.
In Pursuit Of Silence And Superiority
The U.S. Navy has revealed that the Chinese Navy has turned its attention to making its submarines quieter. For decades, the Chinese concentrated on just building subs (no easy feat, as few nations can do it) that were reliable enough for wartime use.
In the last decade, China has sought to make its subs safe for peacetime use. There have been several bad failures of Chinese subs. In one recent case, the entire crew of one boat was asphyxiated when the diesel engines did not shut down as the sub dived. There have been numerous breakdowns while at sea, and many subs that don’t leave port much because of reliability problems.
Diesel electric subs are intrinsically very quiet when underwater, operating on battery power. But the Chinese did not train their crews to be quiet when “running silent.” This included tweaking the mechanical items, that run off battery power underwater, to be quiet. Thus U.S. ships, and especially nuclear subs, had an easy time detecting Chinese subs, even the diesel-electric ones running underwater.
This is all changing. Chinese dockyard workers and engineers are silencing noise making components. Crews are trained to operate silently when the ship is running under water. New nuclear boats are also being refurbished to increase quietness.
Despite all this, the U.S. Navy has found that Chinese subs are still noisier than Russian boats were 20-30 years ago. But if past performance is any guide, in 10 years or so, Chinese subs will be very quiet, and much more dangerous.
China is in the process of expanding its sub fleet from about 60 boats to, over the next decade, 75 more modern ones.
Old Warships Never Die, They Just Fade Away
The Steregushchy class is the newest multipurpose frigate of the Russian Navy.
The Russian public are becoming aware of the fact that they won’t have much of a navy in 5-10 years. The problem is during that period most of the Cold War era warships that now comprise the fleet will have to be retired. These ships are falling apart, as there was not any money since the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, for repairs and upgrades. The Russian parliament is calling for more money, to build enough surface ships to maintain a respectable fleet. That is proving difficult. Then there’s the problem that most of Russians warship building capability has disappeared since 1991.
To that end the Russian government is negotiating with France for the right to buy a Mistral amphibious assault ship/helicopter carrier, and the right to built three more in Russian shipyards. During that process, Russian shipbuilders will learn how it’s done in the West.
For the last seventeen years, most of the Russian construction effort went into finishing a few subs, and building some surface ships for export. Current new-buildings are three SSBNs (the new Borei class, one of which recently entered service), one new SSN (attack sub, that has been building for 15 years now and was recently finished), and one new Amur conventional sub, with two more building.
There is a new class of 4,500 ton frigates (the Gorshkov class), but only one is under construction and won’t be finished for another two years. The Gorshkov’s have a 130mm gun, plus anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles. The navy wants at least a dozen of these 4,500 ton ships, but the money has not been provided yet.
There is one Stereguschyy class corvette in service, with three more building. These are small ships (2,100 tons displacement), costing about $125 million each. These “Project 20380″ ships have impressive armament (two 30mm anti-missile cannon, one 100mm cannon, eight anti-ship missiles, six anti-submarine missiles, two eight cell anti-missile missile launchers). There is a helicopter platform, but the ship is not designed to carry one regularly. Crew size, of one hundred officers and sailors, is achieved by a large degree of automation. The ship also carries air search and navigation radars. It can cruise 6,500 kilometers on one load of fuel. Normally, the ship would stay out 7-10 days at a time, unless it received replenishment at sea. Like the American LCS, the Russian ship is meant for coastal operations. The navy wants at least fifty of them. There is also an amphibious ship under construction, and lots of talk about aircraft carriers. But until money is allocated, and construction starts, it’s all just talk.
Meanwhile, the fleet is a collection of aging Cold War ships. This includes about a dozen SSBNs, two dozen SSNs (nuclear attack subs) and about fifty diesel-electric boats. There’s one aircraft carrier, five cruisers, 17 destroyers, eleven frigates and about fifty corvettes. There are about twenty amphibious ships still in service.
All these Cold War era ships suffered from years of neglect during the 1990s, and most are not in the best of shape. In ten years, all of them will be gone. The new fleet, even if construction picks up, will be much smaller.
The Russian fleet will go from 170 ships and subs now, to less than a third of that. This is not popular with most Russians, but the money, capability and will is not there to do much more.
Move to Prevent Icelandic Mackerel Dispute
New moves are being made to head off the possibility of another mackerel dispute involving Iceland.
Last week the main mackerel fishing countries, headed by the European Union and Norway meeting in Edinburgh failed to reach agreement on a multination quota for next year. Now, in the hope of avoiding trouble, Iceland’s fisheries minister Jon Bjarnasson has officially accepted an invitation sent to him from the European Union, the Faroe Islands and Norway asking his country to participate in North East Atlantic mackerel quota setting in March.
This is the first time Iceland has been asked to attend.
A statement from the Ministry of Fisheries says that all four administrations are agreed that the mackerel stocks should be harnessed sustainably and agree on the importance of a united policy to maintain stocks. The news comes shortly after the Icelandic minister gave his approval for a unilateral 130,000 tonne mackerel quota in 2010.
Iceland has been lobbying hard for a place at the table for several years; but repeated refusal by the other three parties led Iceland to issue its own mackerel quota; and some argue that too-high quotas have been deliberately set to force the EU, Faroes and Norway’s hand.
The problem arises because mackerel are relatively new to Icelandic waters and no tradition of commercial mackerel operations existed before Icelandic vessels first began fishing for mackerel two years ago.
New Littoral Combat Ship Costs Exceed Target, Yet Lower Than Earlier Ships
New cost figures just revealed by the U.S. Navy show that contract prices for the second pair of Littoral Combat Ships (LCS) are far higher than a congressional target, but lower than the first pair of ships. And while the new figures provide more insight into a program where the first pair of ships tripled its initial budget, the convoluted nature of how the second pair is being accounted for may reduce the significance of the contract price.
The contracts for the second pair, LCS 3 and LCS 4, were awarded last spring to Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics, respectively. The prices were kept hidden, the Navy said, because of Pentagon acquisition rules governing the service’s plan to acquire an unspecified number of each of the competing designs. But the strictures were lifted in September when Navy acquisition chief Sean Stackley changed the plan to a winner-take-all strategy.
The contract for LCS 3, awarded March 23 to Lockheed Martin, is for $470,854,144, according to a Naval Sea Systems press release issued Dec. 3. The ship reuses certain materials from an earlier LCS 3 cancelled in April 2007. Those materials, valued at $78 million, bring the contract value to $548,854,144.
For LCS 4, awarded May 1 to General Dynamics, the contract price is $433,686,769. Taken together with $114 million of materials from an earlier LCS 4 canceled in November 2007, the contract value is $547,686,769.
Those numbers contrast with the original $220 million-per ship cost forecast by the Navy in 2004, and a congressionally imposed cost cap of $460 million per ship to take effect with the fiscal 2011 budget.
The new figures are less than the current estimated price of the first pair of ships. In budget documents submitted in May with the 2010 budget, the Navy said the total cost for Lockheed’s LCS 1 – commissioned in November 2008 – is $637 million. The price for GD’s LCS 2 – set to be delivered to the Navy in mid-December and commissioned in January – is $704 million.
The Navy cancelled the first LCS 3 and LCS 4 in 2007 when, in an effort to rein in rising costs, it tried and failed to renegotiate the cost-plus contracts for those ships – paid for in 2006 money – and institute new fixed-price agreements. When the service ordered new ships this year with the same hull numbers but using 2009 money, it created a confusing situation where, in effect, the shipbuilding accounts were double-numbered.
“What you have here are numbers that would have to be manipulated quite a lot to understand what the construction costs of the ships are,” said one congressional source. “This is interesting, but there are so many variables here. It would be hard to use these numbers to get a clear understanding of what these ships cost to build.”
The true cost of the new ships is actually closer to $600 million each, said one professional analyst.
“If you add to the contract price about $20 million for change orders, government-furnished equipment and other categories, you get costs of $560 million to $570 million,” the professional analyst said. “Then throw in outfitting and post delivery, and they’re about $600 million each.”
Those figures are far higher than the $460 million cost cap and help explain why the Navy changed its acquisition plan to winner-take-all, the professional analyst noted.
An industry source also noted the LCS 3 and 4 costs are for single ships only, and don’t have the advantages of the 10-ship buy the Navy is expected to award next year.
“There was a long time between each builder’s first and second ships, and you’ve got to consider the costs of relearning,” said the industry source. “There are no new techniques to introduce, no best practices being figured and no economical buys because there are no cost savings from ships after these.”
There also continue to be disagreements as to the proper way to account for the ships. In early October, the Navy’s Program Executive Officer of Ships, Rear Adm. Bill Landay, said he expected to release the new figures by the end of that month, but the Navy had to work through its internal calculations of what costs to include and then satisfy Congress. Objections from the Hill, primarily from professional staff members on the Senate Appropriations Committee, further held up release of the contract prices.
With four ships under contract, the Navy plans to build another 51 LCS ships.
Revolutionary Guards Said To Take over Iran Naval Forces in Gulf
Iran has given the Revolutionary Guards Corps command over naval operations in the oil-rich Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz as part of a strategy to block access to vital sea lanes in the event of a war, according to a U.S. intelligence study.
The military reorganization, launched in 2007, transfers responsibility for the Gulf from the regular navy to the elite Guards’ naval force, which has an arsenal of small, high-speed boats and cruise missiles, said the study by the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence.
“Throughout the restructuring, senior commanders in the IRIN (Islamic Republic of Iran Navy) and IRGCN (Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Navy) have reiterated that the reorganization of existing bases and the creation of new bases create a line of defense that would prevent an enemy from accessing the Strait of Hormuz and, thus, the Persian Gulf,” said the study, dated Fall 2009.
With the regular Iranian navy operating in the Gulf of Oman with larger warships and the Guards’ using a new base at Asaluyeh to operate in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, the approach will “better allow Iranian naval assets to contribute to and extend Iran’s layered defense strategy,” the study said.
Gulf states produce nearly 30 percent of the world’s oil supply, much of which passes through the narrow Strait of Hormuz, said the study, citing figures from the U.S. Energy Department.
The assessment of Iran’s growing naval power comes amid rising international tensions over the country’s nuclear program. Major powers threatened fresh sanctions against Iran on Monday after Tehran defiantly pledged to build 10 more uranium enrichment plants.
The United States and Israel have refused to rule out a military strike against Iran’s nuclear sites while Tehran has warned it stands ready to hit back if it is attacked.
As Iran also relies on the Strait of Hormuz to transport most its oil exports, imposing a blockade on the area would carry risks for Tehran as well, the study said.
“Closing the Strait of Hormuz would cause Iran tremendous economic damage, and therefore Iran would probably not undertake a closure lightly,” it said.
“However, given the importance of the Strait, disrupting traffic flow or even threatening to do so may be an effective tool for Iran.”
As a generously funded pillar of the regime, the Guards Corps has bolstered its naval might by purchasing Chinese vessels equipped with anti-ship missiles and manufactured patrol craft and missile boats based on North Korean designs, the study said.
“Overall, Iran’s development program has strengthened its naval capabilities, yielding increases in the country’s inventory of small boats, mines, anti-ship cruise missiles, torpedoes, and air defense equipment,” it said.
The corps also bought a number of speed boats from the Italian firm Fabio Buzzi Design, and then reverse-engineered the vessels. The Iranian version of the Fabio Buzzi boat gives the Guards “some of the fastest naval vessels in the Persian Gulf,” the study said. Iran was reportedly seeking to develop unmanned vessels as well, it said.
The Revolutionary Guards Corps has taken on an increasingly high profile in recent years, using its militia wing – the feared Basij – to crack down on mass street protests after disputed elections in June.
And the Guards now own large tranches of the country’s economy, including a massive contract to develop Iran’s biggest gas field.
Estimated at more than 100,000 troops, the corps was initially created to counter perceived threats from leftist guerrillas and army officers who remained loyal to the U.S.-backed shah, overthrown in the 1979 revolution.
